BN’s reduced wins put spotlight on ‘war room’ strategists

By Jahabar Sadiq
Editor
May 14, 2013

File photo of BN chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak announcing Zulkifli (right) as the BN candidate for Shah Alam in the recent general election, a strategy which backfired on the coalition. KUALA LUMPUR, May 14 — Questions are being asked about Barisan Nasional’s (BN) “war room” strategists whose plans with a substantial budget did not appear to stop the ruling coalition from losing more federal and state seats in the May 5 general election.
The BN war room was tasked with selecting the candidates and advising various strategies to win the polls. It counts Rompin MP Datuk Seri Dr Jamaluddin Jarjis, PWTC chairman Datuk Seri Dr Alies Anor Abdul, Petronas director Omar Mustapha Ong, Umno secretary-general Datuk Seri Tengku Adnan Mansor, party information chief Datuk Ahmad Maslan and former minister Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh as among its members.
“It was just a crapshoot. Their ideas didn’t work and their white list predictions were wrong,” a senior Umno divisional leader told The Malaysian Insider on condition of anonymity.

The war room had stuck to its prediction of BN winning between 145 and 150 federal seats and also getting back Selangor in Election 2013 although some senior BN leaders were privately doubtful of the figures.
And by noon on Polling Day, the war room had issued its “white list” of 118 federal seats it was sure to win, but some like Pasir Mas, Shah Alam and Lembah Pantai were lost, which some Umno divisional leaders said reflected the disconnect between the leadership and the ground.
Poster boy of Umno’s insensitivities
The Malaysian Insider also learnt that Jamaluddin was behind BN putting Perkasa vice-president Datuk Zulkifli Noordin as their direct Shah Alam candidate despite his controversial remarks that offended Indians about their Hindu faith.
It was understood that Jamaluddin felt that Zulkifli’s candidacy would not be too much trouble as the latter had already apologised to the Indians for his remarks which he claimed were made when in PAS.
But sources said the strategist did not consider that Zulkifli would become the poster boy of Umno’s disregard for sensitivities of non-Malays.
Raja Nong Chik lost in Lembah Pantai despite devoting his Federal Territory Ministry resources on the city constituency.“The most galling thing is they put Shah Alam on the white list because they thought the Malay majority there would support Zulkifli. How wrong they were,” said an Umno source, commenting on the strategy that backfired.
“There are conservatives with a big ‘C’ and there are conservatives with a small ‘c’. The strategists just did a desktop analysis but did not figure that there are new voters apart from substantial number of Chinese and Indians there,” he added.
He explained that the desktop analysis done by the war room contributed to the belief that BN would do well and even get back its two-thirds parliamentary majority in Election 2008.
“You can’t assume that a Malay majority seat will go back to you or think that you can share the Chinese and Indian votes and later predict you win big nationally and Putrajaya,” said the source.
Outsourced strategies
Another Umno source noted that BN had also outsourced some of the strategy to public relations and branding experts such as APCO’s Paul Stadlen and TV3’s Datuk Seri Ahmad Farid Ridzuan but it appeared to no avail.
Stadlen has been Putrajaya’s main contact with the international media while Farid had been seconded from TV3 parent, Media Prima Bhd, to the Prime Minister’s Department for the past few years.
“They were spending money on local newspapers with shrinking circulation and TV stations that did not appeal to the young. What a waste of time and money,” he said.
It has been estimated that BN had spent more than RM100 million directly and indirectly for the massive media campaign that encompassed print, television, billboards and online sites for Election 2013.
The source, who had been involved in election campaigns since 1999, said the war room had experienced people such as Idris, Tengku Adnan and Jamaluddin but they were incapable of fighting the new media or adapt strategies to attract votes from the younger generation.
“The mainstream media had blacked out the opposition but in the social media, whatever bad we or the mainstream media did, it was amplified online and made people hate us further. As it is, they don’t even read or watch what we do,” he added.
Election machinery meltdown
Other BN sources also pointed out that the coalition’s machinery did not appear to work as well as expected, in a repeat of what happened in Election 2008, against Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) machinery that comprised grassroots members and youths.
“Ahmad Maslan proudly said there will be 66,600 ceramahs but where? It was so hard to even organise one because there were no speakers of national stature or from other component parties,” said a winning BN candidate who declined to be named.
“I had to do everything on my own and get people to speak in the one main ceramah I had,” he said, adding “I saw others who were just talking to their election machinery.”
Despite the lack of help, the BN man said he did better than Senator Raja Datuk Nong Chik Raja Zainal Abidin, who lost in Lembah Pantai despite devoting his Federal Territory Ministry resources on the city constituency.
“Raja Nong Chik was a minister and he had focused City Hall’s efforts on Lembah Pantai but yet failed to win. The war room thought he would so they white listed that place but you can see how fallible they are,” he added.
Last-minute tactics switch
The BN sources agreed that the war room strategists had made assumptions without checking with local divisional officers and ground reports.
“There was so much raw data coming in but not much analysis as everyone kept to themselves for fear of leakage,” said one source.
“They also changed tactics without considering what had been done in the past few years on the ground,” he added, pointing out the last-minute switch for four-term Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman was one such mistake.
He said that the presumed MCA candidate Jason Teoh had done some ground over the past two years in Gelang Patah “but the war room panicked like MCA just because Lim Kit Siang was contesting there”.
“So, they thought Ghani can do the job but it was a massive loss as he doesn’t know the area well although his office is there. Perhaps Teoh could have done better as all he had to do was win over the Chinese voters,” said the source.
He added Lim’s presence with other top DAP leaders also cut BN’s popular votes and losses in the Umno bastion state. “The machinery got frightened of Lim and just gave up,” he added.
The source said this was repeated in other states where DAP had made a big push, such as Negri Sembilan and Selangor but the war room strategists did not react as they were just focused on winning more federal seats.
“There was just this huge disconnect. And that was reflected in the expected results and what we finally got,” he added.

May 11, 2013

BN is effectively a minority government

Filed under: Politics,PRU 13 Election — Hornbill Unleashed @ 6:41 AM
Tags: Anak Sarawak Bangsa Malaysia, Human rights, Malaysia Politics, Save Sabah, Save Sarawak

Tommy Thomas

In assessing the results of the long-awaited 13th general elections, it is imperative that one considers the actual conditions under which the elections were conducted.

Uninformed observers, particularly from overseas, assume that because Malaysia has a Westminister-style parliamentary democracy, our elections are conducted freely, fairly and in the spirit of fair play.
The reality is that our elections are never held as they are in mature democracies like the United Kingdom, India or Australia.
They are rather akin to another Commonwealth country, Zimbabwe, where Robert Mugabe has been in power for some 33 years, and where the ruling party always wins because it thinks it has a divine right to rule, and will cheat to remain in power. Institutions intended to be independent and impartial have never acted independently and impartially.
First, the Election Commission (EC). It does not even give the semblance of being an independent umpire in a contest between two coalitions.
Instead, the EC has been most partisan, always favouring the ruling BN. Bridget Welsh, a well-respected and independent scholar, highlighted in Malaysiakini, the impact of the increased numbers in the electoral roll which were out of line with historical patterns of voter registration.
As examples, she referred to the 21 percent increase in Bachok and 29 percent in Bukit Gantang. Apart from irregularities concerning early and postal voting of some 240,000 voters, double voting and phantom voting have also allegedly took place. Many others have already written about these flaws in the voting process.
Secondly, in appearing to uphold law and order, the police force had been equally partisan, and reportedly going to the extent of transporting and protecting newly-arrived ballot boxes which contained sufficient votes to tip the balance in favour of BN in closely contested seats.
When Malaysian voters attempted to ensure that nothing untoward like that would happen, the police brought in FRU trucks with heavily-armed police ready to intimidate civilians attempting to prevent abuse.
Thirdly, the mainstream media’s sole function has been to print lies and distortions while not giving any mention to any good point that Pakatan may have made.
Fourthly, the caretaker government gave out money and other gifts which, by any yardstick, would constitute bribes and electoral offences. Yet, nothing was done to stop them.
Finally, and perhaps the worst offence committed by BN, with total complicity by EC, was allowing foreigners to vote.
In every nation, only citizens enjoy the privilege of voting in national elections. It is part of nationhood and citizenship. Article 119 (1) of the federal constitution confines the right to vote to citizens, and they further have to comply with residential and registration requirements. Yet, foreigners were allowed to vote in the thousands.
A stolen election
The scandal involving planeloads arriving in Malaysia days before polling has not been credibly answered. One wonders whether any other ruling party in the world will go to the extent of what BN has done. Mugabe may have to copy BN in this trick. All those who participated in this unconstitutional and wholly unacceptable conduct are guilty of treachery and treason.
Most Malaysians knew that this election would be stolen. That is exactly what happened on Sunday, May 5 between 5pm when the polls closed and when the results were announced.
The BN game-plan was to focus on about 30 parliamentary states. Winning them at all costs would ensure a return of power. Thus, they were not interested in Karpal Singh’s seat in Bukit Gelugor which he won by 42,000 votes or Seputeh where Teresa Kok increased her formidable majority to 61,000 seats.
Rather, the focus was on closely contested seats. In these seats, recounts were ordered, which invariably resulted in BN victories. The results were announced very late. There was always a break in the chain of evidence, that is, between the sealing of the ballot boxes after counting in the voting centres, and the subsequent recounts and final announcement of results seven or eight hours later.
With the benefit of hindsight, it becomes clear why in the last week before the elections when all the evidence suggested a surge for Pakatan, the Umno “war room” was confident of winning 140 to 150 seats: they had “insider information” about cheating. The evidence is slowly being uncovered and no doubt by the time these results are challenged in court in the coming weeks, the picture would be much clearer.
An analogy would be a 100-metre race where the BN runner is wearing the best track suit while the legs of his Pakatan rival tied together. The starter, the official at the tape, the track announcer and the final appeal tribunal are all BN-friendly. What would be the outcome of that race?
It is against these absolutely lop-sided voting conditions that one must at once congratulate the people of Malaysia for voting in such large numbers to ensure a magnificent performance by Pakatan against all odds.
Massive gerrymandering 
Even when the results were officially announced by EC, there was discrepancy. The first announcements in the evening of May 5 placed the total national voter turnout at around the 80% mark. The EC subsequently announced on May 6 that it was at 84.84%, a significant increase.
Does the 4% increase represent phantom voters? Set out below is a table that has been compiled from election data published on the EC website.

On the assumption that the information provided by EC is reliable and trustworthy, the critical facts that emerge on our parliamentary elections are as follows:
1. Of the record-breaking voter turnout of 84.84% resulting in 11,257,147 votes being cast nationwide, Pakatan secured 50.85% while BN received 46.87%. Pakatan received 361,101 more votes than BN in the entire country.
2. Pakatan’s margin of victory is more impressive if one considers the result in peninsular Malaysia. Pakatan received 53.26% of the popular vote, while BN had 45.55%. Pakatan received 688,288 more votes than BN. Yet it won five seats less than BN for Parliament.
3. Pakatan’s best performances were in Penang (67.77%), Kuala Lumpur (64.65%) and Selangor (59.36%). BN did best in Sarawak (58.26%), Perlis (55.39%) and Pahang (55.18%). The two seats in Putrajaya and Labuan have been disregarded for this purpose.
4. Kelantan and Terengganu are states in the Malay hinterland. Malay voters constitute at least 90% of the electorate in each state. BN secured 51.42% in Terengganu and 46.24% in Kelantan. 48.47% of the voters in Terengganu supported Pakatan, while 53.7% of Kelantan voted for Pakatan.
This is the best proof that BN was telling another of its big lies when it described Sunday’s result as a “Chinese tsunami”. The plain and obvious fact is Pakatan could not have received a total of 5.62 million votes nationwide if only the Chinese had supported them. Instead, substantial numbers of Malays, Indians, Kadazans and Dayaks voted for Pakatan.
5. Perak has an interesting story of its own. For the parliamentary seats, Pakatan received 54.48% of the votes while BN received 44.71%. Thus, Pakatan received 111,893 more votes than BN.
For the state elections, Pakatan also received 54.48% of the votes, while BN received 44.4%. The votes cast were 625,710 for Pakatan and 506,947 for BN. Hence, Pakatan had a wide margin of 118,763 state votes over BN.
Yet BN formed the state government winning 31 seats to Pakatan’s 28 seats. Only a combination of gerrymandering and outright cheating caused this massive imbalance.
On these facts, an objective case can be made that the BN federal government does not enjoy political legitimacy. It did not secure the mandate of the majority. It is a minority government insofar as public support is concerned.
It is only because of massive gerrymandering that BN has majority representation in the Dewan Rakyat, enabling it to form the federal government. If 25 to 30 of the results are declared void, and by-elections follow in a free and fair manner, the BN government may fall.
When the institutions which were intended to give sanctity to the voters in their once in a five-year opportunity to decide on their government failed disastrously, public confidence was shattered, both in the newly elected government, and in the institutions which allowed this to happen. This is Malaysia’s tragedy, and an awakening.
Two final comments
One needs more time to reflect upon Sunday’s events and their aftermath. Two comments can nonetheless be immediately be made.
In the second decade of the 21st century, it is difficult to believe that there are politicians in any part of the globe who question and insult the world’s great religions and the contents of the Holy Books, who call for such books to be burnt and for places of worship to be destroyed.
Those were the hallmarks of the Nazi regime in 1930s. The declaration of the Atlantic Charter of Four Freedoms (freedom of speech and expression, freedom of religion, freedom from want, and freedom from fear), the establishment of the United Nations and the UN Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, were intended to make these terrible deeds a thing of the past.
When Malaya obtained Merdeka in 1957, our federal constitution expressly stated that freedom of religion is an entrenched, inalienable and fundamental right.
Yet in the months leading up to last weekend’s elections, Umno’s propaganda tool, Utusan Malaysia gave such pronouncements by the likes of Ibrahim Ali wide and extensive publicity. They were also selected to run as candidates.

One hopes that with the decisive defeats of Perkasa leaders Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Noordin, Umno will respect the will of the electorate and cease such abominable conduct. Umno must recognise that we are a moderate, tolerant people who accept plurality and diversity.
Secondly, the youth of Malaysia must not lose heart or give up hope. Those in the country must continue to engage in the reform movement. Wednesday night’s mammoth rally was dominated by youths of all races. The experience was exhilarating.
The Global Bersih campaign opened the eyes of many Malaysians abroad. Millions of them are active in the social media. Thousands of them returned home to vote. You are our best and the brightest. You have the world at your feet. Your talents, intelligence and industry are recognised worldwide. You must not give up on Malaysia.
Stay steadfast for Malaysia. We need you to defeat BN at the earliest opportunity.

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TOMMY THOMAS is a lawyer who had the privilege of being in Kelana Jaya stadium along with 100,000 fellow Malaysians demanding free and fair election results. Apparently, another 100,000 just could not get in.

A Cowboy's Tombstone.

Here are 5 Rules for Men to Follow for a Happy Life that Russel J. Larsen had inscribed on his tombstone in Logan, Utah. He died not knowing he would win the ‘Coolest Tombstone’ contest.

Five Rules For Men To Follow For A Happy Life:

1   1. It is important for men to have a woman who helps at home, cooks from time to time, cleans up, and has a job.

2   2. It is important to have a woman who can make you laugh.

     3. It is important to have a woman who you can trust to take care of you in all ways possible.

4   4. It is important to have a woman who is good in bed, and likes to be with you.

5   5. It is very very important that these four women do not know each other or you could end up dead like me.